«

»

Aug 26

Suggestions for Prognosticators

  1. Don’t bet against human ingenuity.   If your prediction involves the concept that “people will never be able to overcome this challenge”, you’re wrong.
  2. Don’t bet against the laws of physics.   Duh.  Except that sometimes, humans manage to find loopholes.
  3. Don’t misunderstand what people want.   People don’t want cars.  They want a way to get to where they want to go.   They don’t want “music from popular artists” – they want to look “with it.” – Don’t build trend predictions based on the wrong thing.
  4. Don’t bet against the law of supply and demand.   It’s like arguing against evolution – it just makes you look dumb.
  5. Don’t bet against long term trends – they are long term trends for a reason.  Just make sure (re #3) that you understand the actual trend.
  6. Don’t bet against people acting in their own self interest.   People look out for themselves and their families first.   That’s not going to change.
  7. Don’t confuse a technology with an application – the word is full of technologies that are impossible/impractical to use.
  8. People always overestimate what can be accomplished in one year, and underestimate what can be accomplished in 5.  So be safe, and assume it will take 3 years.
  9. If your prediction involves more than two critical coincidences, it’s almost certainly not going to happen.
  10. Even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while. If you make an outlandish prediction that turns out to be true, it doesn’t mean you’re smart.  It means you’re lucky.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>