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Apr 18

Chance of life developing in the universe

Regarding this story – Is there anybody out there?

  1. First, the Drake Equation called, they want their calculations back.
  2. Second, 1979 called, they want their song lyrics back
  3. Third, the journalistic standards on this article are mind-numbingly bad…. A 0.01% chance that life develops????
    1. That’s per-planet. Think about that for a moment. How many stars are there in the Milky Way galaxy alone?
      1. Between 200 and 400 billion.
        1. How many of these are similar to our Sun?
          1. Unclear, but not higher than 15%
    2. So (and this goes back to the Drake Equation) – how many of those stars have planets?
      1. Estimates are that 10% of sun-like stars have planets
    3. How many of those stars have planets in the habitable range
      1. Unknown, but at least a few we’ve found so far appear to be in the potentially habitable range – Let’s say 1%, based on the fact that 3 out of the 287 we’ve found seem to be close to livable.

Given all of these facts and estimates. How many Sun-like stars in the Milky Way?… Assuming 300 billion stars total, that’s 45 billion Sun-like stars. How many of these have planets?… About 10%, or 4.5 Billion. How many of those have planets in the habitable range? 1%, or 45 Million.

Yes folks, based on our latest understanding of the Milky Way galaxy, there are 45 million planets out there capable of supporting life.

Now, according to the initial article, only 0.01% of those will have intelligent life and civilization… That would mean there are “only” 4500 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.

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